Making Decisions When You’re the Final Say

As CEO, every major decision lands on your desk. This article introduces a simple framework to make clear, confident choices—especially when data is incomplete or the stakes are high.

As CEO, every major decision eventually lands on your desk. That weight can either forge clarity—or crush momentum. This article introduces a practical framework to help you stay decisive, even when you're flying with limited data and high stakes.

Unlike other roles, CEOs often face choices that lack clean-cut answers. As Amazon’s founder Jeff Bezos famously put it, “Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had.”

And he’s not alone. A McKinsey study of over 1,200 global executives found that companies that make high-quality decisions quickly are twice as likely to report superior financial performance.

Yet 32% of newly appointed CEOs were replaced within 18 months due to “strategic misalignment and decision uncertainty,” according to a 2024 PwC report. The problem isn’t just vision—it’s the absence of a decision-making framework.

But how can you decide quickly without shooting from the hip?

A Framework to Cut Through the Fog

Here’s a simple framework new CEOs can use when faced with high-stakes decisions:

Clarify the Decision Type

Is this reversible (Type 2) or irreversible (Type 1)? Amazon famously uses this concept to guide how rigorously they evaluate choices. If it's reversible, move quickly.

Anchor to Objectives

Tie each decision back to a short list of quarterly priorities. If it doesn’t move a top objective forward, it can probably wait.

Tap the Right Inputs

For operational calls, consult internal metrics. For market-facing ones, pull insights from customers or peers (see: Customer Feedback Loops).

Pressure-Test It

Ask: “If I had to explain this on a podcast tomorrow, would I be proud of it?” That mental filter weeds out ego-driven or fear-based choices.

Commit Loudly

As a leader, indecision feels like drift. Once you decide, explain it clearly and tie it to mission and values. Teams will forgive mistakes; they won’t forgive confusion.

Here's a simple decision matrix new CEOs can use:

Urgency	Impact	Reversible	Action
High	High	No	Analyze deeply with team
High	High	Yes	Decide quickly, inform stakeholders
Low	High	Yes/No	Schedule into roadmap
Low	Low	Yes	Delegate or defer

When It Goes Wrong

A 2024 survey from PwC showed that 32% of newly appointed CEOs were replaced within 18 months due to “strategic misalignment and decision uncertainty.”

That’s not just a failure of vision—it’s a failure of process.

Expert Insight

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, said:“ Overconfidence is the bias most likely to cloud decision-making at the top.”Mitigate this with a formal process—not just gut.

Summary Thought

If you're making tough calls often, you’re doing it right. Don’t look for a perfect answer. Look for a defensible one you can execute with focus.

Helpful Tools

• Decision Journaling Template by Farnam Street

• The Eisenhower Matrix

• McKinsey’s 3-Step Decision Process